Predictions

A 100 Bloggers blog carnival post

I am not very keen on predictions. I feel rather like Leonardo Da Vinci, who felt time was an slippery substance and wrote that

The water you touch in a river is the last of that which has passed, and the first of that which is coming. Thus it is with time present.

I know this can sound a bit strange for I usually write about business and it seems like most things in business should be planned or have a clear purpose. Yesterday, I had a business lunch with some colleagues and I felt surprised for their trust in dominating the future events. I´d like to offer a bit different vision of things. In my vision one of the things you should do to make your business better is to increase chaos.

Certainly, predictions should be the product of a technique or to be more poetic, of an art. This art has always been called divination. Divination was a common practice in the most developed civilizations. For the romans, it had a divine consideration. It was the grasping of the divine will that gave divination its name.

Among the greeks it was more related to madness. With states of disharmonies in the soul. In our modern lifes we still feel unbalanced and a bit possesed by events and things.

But if predictions keep a similarity with something, it is with dream interpretations. In ancient times it was commonly held that dreams communicated a message about future events and dream interpretation was similar to future decoding.

As we are living in the economy of dreams, our souls are frequently unbalanced and we would like some kind of divine pressence in our souls, prediction and divination apparently still keep some common points.

Every predictive action should follow its own methodology. How am I going to predict if I don´t know where to start from. Searching for help in classic texts I have found a powerful reference on Aristotle´s Rhetoric. This is what the philosopher tells us:

Necessarily, people do everything they do for seven causes: Through chance, through nature, through compulsion, through habit, through reason, through anger, through longing.

So this is the method I´m going to use to make my predictions. I´d like you to follow me in this and write your own expectations. I also recommend you to use it in your business. We usually try to plan through reason and sometimes don´t integrate the other elements in our models and plans. Just try it.

Chance...........  I expect to meet new friends and find a wonderful new book.

Nature............ I predict the avian flu will awaken our fears (It´s in Turkey, close to Europe)

Compulsion....... I predict some distressic states I will live from the huge amount of things to do this year. I am afraid they can collide occassionally.

Habit.............. I imagine I will visit France again.

Reason............ I will publish two more books in 2006.

Anger.............. I expect I could feel angry with some comments coming from bureaucrats.

Longing............ If I meet a girl with shining eyes I could feel fever for her.

This is my contribution.

                   Now it´s you and your life.

                                            Do it!

Comments

[Rocky]

That is really good. The only thing I can think to add is looking at trends. Look at what is developing and see the potential for growth. I think that is what I hear you saying in each of the categories you listed. That is fascinating, I don't think that I spend enough time looking at the trends in my life. If I spent a little more time doing this I could take charge of my circumstances. I like the idea that you are developing here. Thanks.

[Felix Gerena]

Hi Rocky. Yes, trends are important. I think Aristotle´s category of compulsion refers to external influences upon us and can perfectly refer to trends.

[Francisco Fernández]

Nice idea. Here's my contribution:

Chance. I hope to visit one new country and meet one good person this year. More than one will be welcome.
Nature. I predict the tides will continue going high and low as far as the moon keeps moving.
Compulsion. I predict great personal disorders as soon as I start the EMBA.
Habit. I will continue giving advices I can not follow myself.
Reason. I will try to stop giving advices I can not follow myself.
Anger. I expect I will feel angry with myself when the Habit beat the Reason.
Longing. just a cup of a coffee with no hurry, no concerns and no plans on any Sunday morning.

[/pd/pd]

Nice. A very nice post. I will hijack your Quotes :)-

But to touch on Aristotle´s Rhetoric and to get rhetorical, people sometime do things because they are crazy too.. a flash of madness - suddenly is deemed to be as the "light going on" and that is also called as being a genuis !!

[Felix Gerena]

Great comments. Thanks!

Francisco, I also like those days with no worries. I especially enjoy them on the beach leaving the waves touch my fingers and feeling the sun rays on my skin. I love it.

Peter, I agree, a touch of madness is also necessary. For the Greeks divination had similarities with madness (schizophrenia), for the schizophrenic finds traces or signs of meaning everywhere. That´s why chamans usually feel possesed and their souls unbalanced. ;)

[Omara]

Brilliant! It's o fresh. Have you gone veggie by any chance?. Just joking; I doubt you will go for that with the fabulous seafood in that country :-)

[Francisco Fernández]

Anyone said seafood??? I forgot to include that one in my longing right after the coffee cup. :)

[Felix Gerena]

Wow. Thanks everybody for the comments.

Omara, Still not a veggie, but more and more interested in vegetables, certainly. Gym and vegetables is an awesome blend fo health. I´m on the way to that.

Francisco, fruits de mer are so wonderful. On Christmas I had some wonderful cigalas, one of my favorite dishes, indeed.

[Omara]

Sounds good enough for keeping oneself healthy. Take it easy.